中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型  

How Can Chinese Economy Achieve the Transition toward Total Factor Productivity Growth?

作　　者：蔡昉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院学部,北京100732

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2013年第1期56-71,206,共16页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：随着以劳动力短缺和工资持续提高为特征的"刘易斯转折点"的到来,以及以人口抚养比不再降低为表现的"人口红利"的消失,中国经济逐步进入从二元经济发展阶段向新古典增长阶段的转变时期。在这个转变过程中,资本报酬递减现象开始出现,靠大规模的政府主导型投资以保持经济增长速度的方式,不再具有可持续性。从经济增长理论、国际经验和中国现实等角度进行的研究发现,中国亟须通过政策调整,形成国内版的"雁阵"模型和"创造性毁灭"的政策环境,获得资源重新配置效率,并且从技术进步和体制改善中获得更高效率,以实现中国经济增长向全要素生产率支撑型模式的转变。With the arrival of the 'Lewis turning point' characterized by labor shortage and wage increase, and with the disappearance of 'demographic dividend' as reflected in a halt in the decline of dependency ratio, Chinese economy has entered into a transition from the phase of dualistic economy to that of neo-classical growth. During the transition, the phenomenon of decreasing returns to capital begins to appear, and the large-scale investment guided by the government becomes unsustainable to maintain the economic growth rate. Our study from the perspectives of economic growth theory, international experience and Chinese realities reveals that China should make necessary policy adjustments to develop a domestic 'flying geese' model and nurture a 'creative destruction' policy environment to obtain efficiency in resource reallocation, and should gain a higher efficiency from technological advance and institutional improvement to promote the transition of Chinese economy towards a growth model sustained by total factor productivity.

关 键 词：刘易斯转折点 资本报酬递减 全要素生产率 创造性毁灭 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]