LNG在我国内河水运领域的应用探讨  

Prospect of LNG application to inland water transportation in China

作　　者：周淑慧[1] 沈鑫[1] 刘晓娟[1] 李广[1] 杨义[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2013年第2期81-89,共9页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：发展LNG动力船舶对于我国内河航运的节能减排具有十分重要的意义。为此,在对我国水运行业发展趋势、燃料消费情况及需求潜力分析预测的基础上,结合对LNG资源供应价格、LNG替代燃油的经济性及水运气代油发展进程的分析判断,对LNG在内河水运领域的应用前景进行了分析。结论认为:①LNG替代船用燃料油没有竞争力,而替代柴油则具有较好的经济性;②未来我国LNG资源供应可以满足水运气代油的需求,船上供应价格也在航运企业承受范围之内;③从技术经济角度考虑,内河和沿海船舶气化应当首选货运船,其次是工程船,渔船由于吨位小、年行驶时间短且享受政府燃油补贴,一般不适合改造;④鉴于LNG动力船舶在法规、技术、LNG水上供应等方面仍有许多问题待解决,总体看水运气代油市场需要经过2～3年的试验示范期、2～3年的启动期,然后才能进入规模发展期;⑤考虑替代的可能性及市场培育过程,预测2015年较为现实的水运气代油最大市场需求量约为6×108 m3,2020年则接近40×108 m3。最后建议政府主管部门及相关企业统筹规划,合理把握项目推进的节奏。The development of LNG-powered vessels is of great significance to energy saving and emission reduction in inland waters shipping in China. In view of this, this paper first analyzes and predicts the shipping business trend, fuel consumption and LNG demand potential in China. Then, this paper makes an investigation into supply price of LNG resources, economical efficiency of LNG＇s being substitute for fuel oils, and the process of gas-powered vessels development. The following conclusions are drawn of the prospect of LNG as an alternative fuel for shipping vessels in China. （1） LNG is less competitive than fuel oils but more cost-effective than diesel. （2） In the future, LNG supply will satisfy the need of LNG as a vessel fuel and its price will be acceptable in the shipping business in China. （3） From both technical and economic points of view, LNG is a good alternative fuel for inland and offshore cargo ships and engineering ships, but not for fishing boats due to its small tonnage, short shipping time as well as fuel subsidies. （4） There are still many problems to solve in terms of legislation, technology, LNG supply on waters, etc. In general, the replace- ment of shipping vessel fuels by LNG will first go through a trial period of 2 - 3 years, then a start-up period of 2 - 3 years, and finally come into the business development. （5） With the possibility of this replacement and the process of market cultivation taken into account, it is predicted that the maximum demand volume of LNG as an alternative vessel fuel will be about 0.6 billion m3 in 2015 and nearly 4 billion m3 in 2020. In the end, this paper suggests that government departments in charge and the related enterprises should make overall plans and have a sense of ability to reasonably promote this project.

关 键 词：中国 内河水运 液化天然气 船舶 燃料 经济性 市场潜力 发展建议 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22