日韩粮食消费结构变化特征及对我国未来农产品需求的启示  

Changing Trends of Food Consumption Structure in Japan and Korea and Their Implications for China's Future Food Demands

作　　者：杨军 程申[2] 杨博琼[3] 王晓兵 

机构地区：[1]中科院地理所农业政策研究中心,北京100101 [2]中国农业大学,北京100083 [3]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第1期24-31,共8页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然基金项目"多哈谈判背景下中非农产品贸易合作战略与政策研究"(70873116);清华大学中国农村研究院研究课题(CIRS2012-2);中国科学院(KZZD-ED-08-04)的资助

摘　　要：随着中国经济持续快速发展和人民生活水平不断提高,中国农业比较优势、生产结构和居民消费结构都发生了显著改变,引发了对中国未来粮食安全的新一轮讨论。本文从日韩人均食物消费过去50年的变化特征,预测中国口粮消费在未来将进一步下降,而高附加值农产品需求将显著增长,国家亟需制定面向未来的"粮食安全"新战略。Agricultural production structure and food consumption are changing dramatically paralleled with the rapid growth rate of GDP and net income per capita.These have motivated the burning debates of food security again.Comparing to the previous studies,the study draws conclusions with reference to what has happened in the developed neighbor countries of Japan and Korea in the past 50 years.The results indicate that the domestic demand of grain crops will decrease,however,the high-added value products will increase significantly.China＇s government should ponder and revise its food security strategy in the future.

关 键 词：粮食安全 日韩食物消费结构变化 分析预测 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]