基于CLUE-S模型的湟水流域土地利用空间分布模拟  

Land use spatial distribution modeling based on CLUE-S model in the Huangshui River Basin

作　　者：冯仕超[1] 高小红[1] 顾娟[2,3] 亢健[1] 郭丽峰[1] 吴国良[1] 邹婵[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院青藏高原环境与资源教育部重点实验室,西宁810008 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《生态学报》2013年第3期985-997,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40861022);中国科学院"西部之光"项目(科发人教字[2006]378号)

摘　　要：基于CLUE-S模型,以青海湟水流域为研究区,分别利用1987年和1996年两期土地利用数据,运用逻辑斯蒂逐步回归方法选择自然和社会经济等18种驱动因子,对湟水流域2007年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟。在此基础上,构建流域2008—2027年土地利用变化的4种不同情景,并模拟了4种情景下2027年土地利用空间分布格局。研究结果表明:(1)两期模拟总体精度分别达到了88.31%和89.96%,4种Kappa指数均大于0.82,表明CLUE-S模型在湟水流域具有良好的土地利用模拟能力。(2)流域2008—2027年不同情景下,城乡居住建设用地在4种情景下均表现为明显增加,主要沿湟水河谷区域扩展,而3种退耕情景下的坡耕地空间格局模拟结果存在着明显的空间差异,从情景二、情景三到情景四,流域内坡耕地范围逐步减小,林地、草地面积范围增大,退耕部分主要分布在流域东部、西部和北部:东部地区退耕的范围主要是集中在乐都县和民和县;北部地区退耕的范围主要是集中在大通县县城北部;西部地区退耕范围则主要在湟源县县城西北部的湟水河两岸。研究结论可为湟水流域未来土地利用管理、规划及政策的制定等提供参考依据和决策支持。In this paper, taking the Huangshui river basin of Qinghai province located in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau as the study area, based on CLUE-S model, using land use data in 1987, 1996 and 2007, land use spatial distribution pattern and future scenarios was simulated. Firstly, 18 key driving factors including elevation, slope of between 0 °-5°, 5°- 15°, 15 °-25 ° and 〉 25°, aspect （ fiat aspect, eastern aspect, southern aspect, western aspect and northern aspect）, distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to urban and rural residential areas, population, local financial revenue and so on, were selected by using logistic step-regression method; Secondly, land use data in 1987 and 1996 were used respectively respectively） for to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in 2007 （the temporal scale was 20 years and 11 years the Huangshui river basin. In the end, in order to validate simulation results of two temporal scale,simulated land use map in 2007 was respectively compared with actual land use map in 2007. The results showed that using CLUE-S model, at 250m spatial resolution level, the simulation accuracy reached respectively 88.31% and 89.96% at two temporal scale, and Kquality indices attained all 0. 999, Klocation indices were 0. 826 and 0. 851 respectively, Kstandard indices were 0. 826 and 0. 851 respectively, Knoindices were 0. 826 and 0. 851 respectively, all Kappa indices were more than 0.82, which suggesting that CLUE-S model has a good applicability in simulating land use change in the Huangshui river basin and can be used to predict future land use change. Focusing mainly on slope cultivated land change of the study area, four kinds different scenarios of land use change for future 20 years （ from 2008 to 2027 ） were constructed, and land use spatial pattern in 2027 in the study area was stimulated under above different scenarios by using the CLUE-S model. The simulation results indicated that in 2027 urban and built- up land was significantly increased under

关 键 词：土地利用 土地覆被变化 CLUE-S模型 空间分布 情景模拟 湟水流域 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] F224