1990年-2008年中国化学工业碳排放脱钩和反弹效应研究  

Decoupling Effects and Rebound Effects in the Chinese Chemical Sector from 1990-2008

作　　者：梁日忠[1] 张林浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学循环经济研究院,上海200072

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第2期268-274,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(编号:10YJAZH046);国家社科基金项目(编号:12BJY061)

摘　　要：运用IPCC推荐的二氧化碳计算方法推算1990年-2008年间中国化学工业的CO2排放量,并以此为基础,通过构建基于脱钩理论的OECD和Tapio脱钩分析模型,研究中国化学工业1990年-2008年工业增长与CO2排放的脱钩关系及程度,分析了二者脱钩发展的时间演变趋势,并运用完全分解模型对中国化工行业经济增长中的碳排放反弹效应进行分解分析。结果表明:1990年-2008年间中国化工产值增长与其CO2排放之间处于相对脱钩或弱脱钩状态;影响中国化学工业CO2排放量增长的主要因素是规模效应,并且其作用大于技术提高所带来的CO2排放量减少的影响。The chemical sector is a large consumer with high material consumption, high energy consumption and high emissions. Energy saving and emission reductions in the Chinese chemical sector will play a key role in the development of a low-carbon economy in China. The purpose of this paper was to investigate potential factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in the Chinese chemical＇ Sector from 1990 to 2008. Two decoupling analysis models, , the OECD model and Tapio model,were constructed to determine the decoupling relationship between industry growth and carbon dioxide emissions. A complete decomposition analysis model based on the IPAT model was used to analyze the factors that influence carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption. We found general relative decoupling or weak decoupling over the study period for the Chinese chemical sector, except for 1994 and 1996. The main factor affecting growth in carbon dioxide emissions was Chinese chemical sector economic scale. The Chinese chemical sector achieved a considerable decrease in carbon dioxide emissions due to improved energy intensity. Carbon dioxide emission reduction technology remains relatively low and this has limited decoupling of the economy from carbon dioxide emissions. The impact of energy structural change was relatively small during 1990 to 2008. Several strategic suggestions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in the Chinese chemical sector are discussed.

关 键 词：化学工业 CO2排放 脱钩效应 反弹效应 中国 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.7[经济管理—产业经济] F224