基于结构分解法的北京市能源碳排放增量分析  

Increased CO_2 Emissions because of Energy Consumption in Beijing based on Three-Level Nested I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis

作　　者：张旺[1,2] 周跃云[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学全球低碳城市联合研究中心,株洲412007 [2]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第2期275-283,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目:"城镇污水处理系统碳排放检测技术与统计系统研究"(编号:2011BAJ07B03-06)

摘　　要：应用三层嵌套结构式I-OSDA方法,构建扩展的(调入、进口)竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出模型,从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面,对1997年-2007年北京市能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现:经济规模增长要素(消费、投资、调出和出口等)是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素,能源强度变动效应却是碳减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张因素中,消费和调出超过投资和出口,是碳排放增长的主要贡献者;2002年以来新一轮"高碳"特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势;产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门,但工业排放的增长却后来居上;碳增排的重点行业是高能耗行业,碳减排的是能源工业;两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。The first task in ensuring CO2 emission reductions is to quantitative measure the factors and their effect size on increasing CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel consumption. An extension of the buys in and import-noncompetition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed to analyze 1997-2007 CO2 emission increases for Beijing. The increase in CO2 emissions because of energy consumption was broken down into nine kinds of effects including the change in energy consumption intensity and structure, and economic scale expansion. We found that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption, investment, export and selling are the main factors increasing CO2 emissions. The effect of the change in energy consumption intensity is the dominant factor reducing CO2 emissions. Since new industrialization with ＂high carbon＂ features commenced in 2002, CO2 emissions have increased rapidly. The first increase in carbon emissions was related to the service industry, the adjustment in industrial structure and the priority given to tertiary industries. High energy-consumption manufacturing is the industrial branch driving carbon emissions; the main industry driving carbon emission reductions is the energy industry. The quantity and direction of the nine focal effects varied across industries and different industrial sectors in each period. In the future Beijing should make full use of science and technology and industrial structure to rationa.lly exploit renewable sources and zero-carbon energy. The city should also balance the relationship between investment and consumption. Flexible measurements should be adopted so that all effects function adequately on the basis of classified guidance and different policies in time.

关 键 词：I-OSDA法 能源消费 CO2排放 效应 北京市 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224