月水量平衡模型在窟野河流域的水文模拟  

Hydrological simulation of water balance model in the Kuyehe River catchment

作　　者：邢肖鹏 张文忠 唐芳芳 刘翠善[2] 牛海静 

机构地区：[1]山西省水资源研究所,山西太原030001 [2]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [3]黄委水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2012年第6期73-78,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家973气候变化专项计划(2010CB951103);中英瑞气候变化适应项目(ACCC20100202);中荷国际科技合作项目(2010DFA24330)资助

摘　　要：在黄土高原生态脆弱区,水文模拟是一个巨大的挑战,特别是水文模型的应用是一个关键的问题。窟野河是黄河中游河龙区间重点支流,也是典型的黄土高原生态脆弱区,并且是我国重要的煤炭基地。人类活动比较频繁,在气候变化情景下,水资源问题比较突出。本文旨在收集窟野河流域降雨、蒸发、径流资料,资料系列1956-2008年,将月水量平衡模型对窟野河流域径流进行模拟,通过水文要素趋势分析,选取模型率定期和验证期确定参数,计算模拟径流。结果表明:Nash-sutcliffe系数在70%以上。可见,集总式月水量平衡模型具有结构简捷、参数少的优点,对窟野河流域均具有较好的模拟效果。为开展未来气候变化对水资源的影响作铺垫。Hydrological simulation is an enormous challenge in ecological vulnerable areas of Loess Plateau,especially application of Hydrological model is a key issue.Kuyehe River is the first class tributary of the Yellow River,Which locates in the vulnerable areas of ecology and environment,and is an important coal base.Human activities are more frequent,the problem of water resources is more outstanding under the effects of climate change.The paper used WRB model to simulate runoff in the Kuyehe River catchment from 1956 to 2008.The model and validation period were selected by analysing the trend of hydrology factors,and determining paramerers and simulating runoff.Results indicate that Nash-sutcliffe coefficient exceed 70 percent.In a word,this model has advantages of concise structure and less parameters,and possesses better effect on Kuyehe River catchment and provides the basis for analyzing the influence of climate change on water resources in the future.

关 键 词：月水量平衡模型 径流 模拟 窟野河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]