中国原油进口对国际油价波动的影响及其战略转型研究  

The Impact of China's Oil Import on the Fluctuation of International Oil Price and China's Relevant Strategic Transformation

作　　者：蒋瑛[1] 罗明志[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2012年第6期133-140,共8页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：2012年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目<碳约束下中国包容性增长的路径选择研究>(12YJA790056)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：随着中国原油净进口的快速增加,中国因素可能对国际油价产生影响。交易者异质性预期是国际油价的决定因素,中国原油进口会影响基本面分析者的预期形成进而影响油价波动。以2005年8月至2011年11月的时间序列数据,通过构建VAR模型得以证实,中国原油净进口是国际原油价格的Granger原因。从长期看,中国原油净进口对国际油价的冲击和影响力度不仅显著而且在逐渐加强。今后需要对石油外向型战略进行重新认识,未来中国的石油战略需要向能源替代战略转型、向参与国际原油期货市场转型。With the rapid increase of China＇s net imports of crude oil,China may have an impact on international oil price.Heterogeneous expectations of traders is the crucial factor for international oil price,and China＇s imports of crude oil can affect the fluctuation of oil price by influencing fundamental analysts＇ expectations.In this paper,time serial data from August 2005 to November 2011 are selected and a VAR model is formulated to confirm that China＇s net imports of crude oil is the Granger factor for international crude oil price.In the long run,the impact of China＇s net imports of crude oil is significant and is gradually intensifying.This paper proposes to reexamine the export-oriented strategy,and that China＇s future oil strategy needs to be transformed to alternative energy strategies and participate in international oil futures market.

关 键 词：国际油价 中国原油净进口 VAR模型 战略转型 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济]