深井煤层底板突水组合灰色物元理论预测  

Combined Grey Matter-Element Theory to Predict Water Inrush from Floor of Deep Seam

作　　者：郑文翔[1,2] 孙明[1] 刘文卓 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学高等职业技术学院,内蒙古包头014010 [2]太原理工大学矿业工程学院,山西太原030024 [3]内蒙古自治区第四地质矿产勘查开发院,内蒙古集宁012000

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2013年第2期108-112,共5页Coal Science and Technology

基　　金：中国博士后基金资助项目(20090461257);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2009MS0904)

摘　　要：深井煤层底板突水是一个不断与外部环境进行物质、能量、信息交换的开放系统,具有协同性、自组织性、主控因素多、条件不准确的特点,为预测煤层底板突水,建立了深井煤层底板突水的主控指标体系,通过灰色关联分析选出9个主控因素,应用熵值函数法确定主控因素在突水过程中的权重,选取7个隶属函数和2个隶属度对主控因素指标进行规范处理。在此基础上,构建出线性灰色物元分析预测模型,应用该模型对5个样本进行分析,得到各预测样本的综合关联度,评价结果与实际情况一致,并利用-1和0当作阈值,据此确定了深井底板突水安全区、脆弱区和危险区。Due to the water inrush from a floor of deep seam is an open system continually exchanging with the outside environment on the material, energy and information and the system with the features of a cooperativity, self-organization, multi maijor control factors and inac- curate conditions, in order to predict the water inrush from the floor of the seam, with the main control index system of the water inrush from floor of deep seam established, there were nine maijor control factors obtained with the grey correlation analysis.The entropy function meth- od was applied to determine the contributed weight of the main control factors in the water inrush process.Seven subordinate functions and two subordinate scales were selected to make the standard processing of the main control factor indexes.Based on the circumstances, a line- ar grey matter element analysis prediction mode was established.The comprehensive correlative degrees of each predicted samples for five practical samples were obtained and the evaluation results was the same to the actual conditions. With application of - 1 and 0 as the threshold values, the safety area, weak area and danger area of the floor water inrush in the deep mine were determined.

关 键 词：主控指标体系 灰色关联 主控因素 熵值函数法 最优灰色物元模型 综合关联度 

分 类 号：TD745.21[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]