我国玉米自然灾害风险区识别研究  

Study on identification of natural disaster risk zones of maize in China

作　　者：赵俊晔[1] 张峭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第1期29-37,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑重点项目(2009BADA9B01);国家"十二五"科技支撑重点项目(2012BAH20B04)

摘　　要：自然灾害严重影响和制约我国农业生产的持续稳定发展,识别主要作物自然灾害风险因子和风险区,对作物生产风险监测预警和风险防范及有效评估作物因灾损失有重大意义。基于区域自然灾害理论,构建了由致灾因子、孕灾环境因子和承灾体因子构成的作物自然灾害风险评价指标,利用1980-2010年全国各省市玉米产量数据和1991-2010年全国257个气象站点以玉米为承灾体的灾情数据,计算了省级单元不同因子自然灾害影响指数和灾害风险综合评价指数,揭示了我国玉米主要自然灾害的时空分布规律,识别了玉米自然灾害极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区、低风险区和可忽略风险区。结果表明,干旱是我国玉米产区主要自然灾害,其次是低温和风雹,干旱、洪涝、风雹、病虫害等多发于6-8月份,低温灾害多发于4-5月份;不同种类自然灾害大多具有连片发生的特点;自然灾害高风险区省份主要集中于北部和黄淮海平原玉米产区,同一级别风险区的风险影响因子不尽相同,在风险监测预警和防范中需区别对待。Natural disasters seriously affect and restrict the sustained and stable development of agriculture in China. Identification of risk factors and risk zones of natural disasters for main crops is of great importance for risk early-warning, prevention and effective assessment of crops＂ losses in disasters. Based on the regional natural disaster theory, the crops＇natural disaster integrated risk assessment index made of disaster-causing factors, hazard inducing environment factors and hazard bearing body factors was established. With data of yields and areas in maize of all the provinces of China during 1980 -2010 natural disaster situation data of maize recorded by 257 meteorological stations, different natural disaster affecting indices and integrated risk assessment index were calculated, spatiotemporal distribution of primary natural disaster of the maize was identified, and according to the maize^s natural disaster integrated risk assessment index, extremely high risk zone, high risk zone, medium risk zone, low risk zone and negligible risk zone were divided. The results show that first drought, and next low temperature, strong wind and hail, is the main natural disaster of Chinese maize. Low temperature disaster often OCCUrs during April to May, other disasters happen during June to August, and most of the natural disasters have contiguous occurrence characteristics. High natural disaster risk zones mainlv ccmcentrate nn the nnrtharn and th,~Huang-Huai-Hai Plain maize belt, and risk factors should be distinguished in different provinces of the same risk zone when applied in the risk monitoring and risk prevention.

关 键 词：玉米 自然灾害 综合风险评价 风险区 风险识别 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] S513