干旱综合风险指标的构建及风险区划——以河北省冬麦区为例  

Integrated index construction and zoning of drought risk:a case study of winter wheat area in Hebei Province

作　　者：吴荣军[1] 史继清[1] 关福来 姚树然 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第1期145-152,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD32B04)

摘　　要：以河北省冬小麦种植区为例,基于自然水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数,构建了干旱风险综合指标,并开展了风险区划;同时,利用冬小麦单产减产百分率和该区域历史旱灾发生频次资料,比较并验证了干旱风险综合指标和风险区划结果。结果表明,所构建的干旱风险综合指标适用于冬小麦的干旱风险区划,对于冬小麦因旱灾造成减产的风险评估和预测具有一定的参考价值。Taking winter wheat growing areas in Hebei Province deficiency rate index, precipitation anomaly percentage index and as example, and based on the natural water drought resistance index, this paper constructed an integrated drought risk index, and carried out risk zoning. Also, by use of the percentage reduction of the yield of winter wheat due to drought and the regional historical drought occurrence frequency, the paper compared and validated the integrated drough integrated drought risk index in reference to risk assessment and t risk index and risk zoning results. The results showed that the constructed this paper is applicable for winter wheat drought risk zoning, and could give a prediction of yield reduction of winter wheat caused by drought

关 键 词：干旱 冬小麦 自然水分亏缺率 风险区划 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]