陕西省苹果花期冻害风险评估及预测技术研究  

Study of risk assessment and prediction of apple blooming freezing injury in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：屈振江[1] 刘瑞芳[2] 郭兆夏[1] 王景红[1] 刘璐[1] 柴芊[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,陕西西安710015 [2]陕西省气象台,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第1期219-225,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：陕西省"13115"科技创新工程公共服务平台建设项目(2010FWPT-17);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-4)

摘　　要：苹果花期冻害风险评估及预测对促进苹果产业合理规划布局,减轻气象灾害损失有十分重要的意义。以冻害风险灾损率为指标,对陕西苹果基地县的冻害发生风险进行了评估,开发了基于数值预报模式和G IS技术的花期冻害中短期预测模型,将冻害温度预报扩大到乡镇级并实现了业务化解释应用。The risk assessment and prediction of apple blooming freezing injury is of great importance in promoting the rational planning and layout of apple industry and reducing the meteorological disaster losses. Here the index of freezing injury risk rate was taken as an index to assess the risk of freezing injury in apple base counties of Shaanxi Province. Based on the numerical weather prediction model and GIS technology the medium-term and short-term blooming freezing injury forecast models were developed, which make the temperature forecast areas of freezing injury extend to county level and realize the operational explanation application.

关 键 词：苹果 花期冻害 风险 预测 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]