基于周期视角的中国税收高增长问题研究  

Study of the Rapid Growth of Tax Revenues based on Cyclical Analysis

作　　者：白彦锋[1] 王婕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2013年第2期14-19,共6页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部新世纪人才计划支持(项目编号:NCET-11-0748);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目<中国税制改革风险问题研究>(立项号:11JJD790037)的阶段性成果;"中财-鹏元地方财政投融资研究所"的资助

摘　　要：中国自分税制改革以来的税收高增长是否只是特殊现象,世界其他国家是否也在经济腾飞期存在税收收入高增长的问题,中国税收收入波动是否存在某种周期规律,2012年税收收入增速创近年新低是否预示着中国税收高增长时代的拐点到来?为了深入探讨这些问题,本文从短期波动和长期趋势两个方面分析中国税收收入波动的特点,并同美国和日本进行对比分析。根据税收的周期性变化和中国宏观经济形势变化,中国税收收入未来增速逐渐下降将在所难免。Is the rapid growth of tax revenues since the tax system reform of 1994 a special kind of phenomenon in China or common scenes in other countries？ Do tax revenue fluctuations follow certain laws？ The sharp decline in the growth rate of tax revenues is indicative of the turning point of Tax High-Growth Era？ To investigate these issues,this paper makes analysis of characteristics of Chinas tax revenue cyclical fluctuations from two aspects-short-term fluctuations and long-term trend and makes comparisons with the United States and Japan.According to the cyclical changes of tax revenues and the coming turning point of the economy,the decline of Chinas tax revenue growth rate will be inevitable.

关 键 词：税收收入 GDP 短期波动 长期趋势 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]