基于集中度和圆形分布法的河南省流感发病季节性特征分析  

Analysis of the Seasonality Characteristics of Influenza Based on Concentration Degree and Circular Distribution Methods in Henan

作　　者：杨召[1] 叶中辉[1] 李星[1] 李岩[1] 翟羽佳[1] 尤爱国[2] 王重建[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,郑州450001 [2]河南省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,郑州450016

出　　处：《医学与社会》2013年第2期7-9,共3页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目;编号为81001293;全国大学生创新创业训练计划项目;编号为2011cxsy173&2012cxsy130

摘　　要：目的:探讨集中度和圆形分布法在流感发病的季节性特征及变化趋势分析中的应用。方法:采用集中度和圆形分布法对河南省2004-2011年流感疫情资料进行季节性及集中趋势分析,通过趋势检验分析该省流感发病的变化趋势。结果:2004-2011年该省共报告流感病例31,717例,发病主要集中在秋冬季,部分集中于春末夏初。季节性分布的M值和r值分别在0.175-0.462和0.177-0.465之间波动。平均高峰日在12月1日,平均高峰期在8月16日-次年3月25日,发病流行期接近或超过12个月。2004-2011年流感发病率呈上升趋势(P<0.01)。结论:该省2004-2011年流感发病年均存在发病高峰日和高峰期,年发病率呈上升趋势。Objective： To explore the seasonality characteristics and changed tendency of influenza using concentration degree and circular distribution methods in Henan province from 2004-2011. Methods： Concentration degree and circular distribution were used to analysis the seasonal characteristics of influenza in the province form 2004 to 2011, and 2 trend test was used to measure the changed tendency of influenza. Results： A total of 31,717 influenza patients were reported from 2004 to 2011 in the province, and a seasonal incidence was found. Major patients were found in autumn and winter, and part of patients was observed in the end of spring and early summer. The M- value and r-value of concentration degree were 0.175-0.462 and 0.177-0.465, respectively. The average peak day was December 1, and the average peak period was varied form August 12 to March 25, and the epidemic period was close to Or more than 12 months in the province. The further analysis showed that there was an increased tendency on the incidence of influenza with over time（P〈0.01）. Conclusion： A weaker seasonality of influenza was observed in the province from 2004 to 2011. However, the epidemic peak days and peak period of influenza were existed, and an increased tendency on the incidence of influenza was also found with over time.

关 键 词：集中度 圆形分布 流感 季节性 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]