中国能源消费增长的驱动因素分析  

Driving Factors of China's Energy Consumption Increase

作　　者：赵慧卿[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2013年第1期32-36,共5页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国要素收入分配结构及演进趋势研究"(10CTJ009);全国统计科研计划项目(2012LY168);天津市高校人文社会科学研究项目(20112406)

摘　　要：随着我国经济的持续高速增长,能源消费迅速攀升,能源供需矛盾日益激化。使用LMDI分解方法,对1995—2010年我国能耗总量进行分解分析。结果表明:1995—2010年,我国能源消费总量累计增长134.30%,主要受劳动生产率及能源强度两个因素驱动,其余因素的贡献很小。短期内应降低各行业能源强度,尤其是重化工业和交通运输业能源强度以实现节能减排目标。从长远来看,应对产业结构和能源结构进行战略性调整。With the sustainable and rapid growth of China＇ s economy, energy consumption has been increasing quickly, so the imbalance between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly severe. With LMDI decomposition method, the article made a study of China＇ s total energy consumption between 1995 and 2010. The results showed that China＇ s total energy consumption accumulatively increased by 134.30% between 1995 and 2010, and was mainly driven by the two factors of labor productivity and energy intensity, and the contribution of other factors was very little. In the short term, it is necessary to reduce energy intensity, especially energy intensity of heavy chemical industry and transportation industry, to achieve the goal of conserving energy and reducing emissions. In the long term, it is essential to adjust industrial structure and energy structure strategically.

关 键 词：对数均值迪氏指数 能源消费总量 能源强度 能源结构 产业结构 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F222.3