基于区间数的评估模型在草地螟灾损评估中的应用  

Disaster Loss Estimate Model of Meadow Moth(Loxostege sticticalis L.) Based on Interval Numbers

作　　者：闫伟兄[1] 陈素华[1] 孙小龙[1] 王丽媚[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,呼和浩特010051 [2]鄂尔多斯市气象局气象科技服务中心,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第5期132-136,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术"(GYHY200906028)

摘　　要：为定量评估草地螟对农作物产量的影响,利用区间数,建立了草地螟灾害损失评估模型。针对灾损评估中很难获得精确的灾损数据和灾害评估指标等级区间化的特点,利用内蒙古历史上10次草地螟危害年份,通过区间数定义、评估指标的建立和灾害等级的确定,构建了草地螟灾害损失评估模型。通过计算综合相对距离测度,对草地螟危害造成农作物产量的损失进行研究。结果表明:评估模型对数据的采用较为灵活、计算过程简单、结果较为客观,可尝试应用于草地螟灾害损失评估实践。The evaluation model of meadow moth disaster loss was constructed according to the interval number to evaluate the effect on crop yield by meadow moth quantificationally.There was this characteristic that it was hard to get accurate data of disaster loss and the pest disaster should be evaluated in grades.Based on the data of meadow moth damage for 10 years observed in Inner Mongolia,via the definition of interval number and the construction of the evaluation index and classification of disaster loss,the measurement of the comprehensive relative distance was calculated and the crop yield loss by meadow moth damage was studied in this paper.The results indicted that data adoption by the evaluation model was flexible relatively,computing process was simple comparatively and analytic results were reasonable.This evaluation model could be applied to the evaluation of meadow moth disaster loss in practice.

关 键 词：区间数 评估模型 草地螟 灾损 

分 类 号：S119[农业科学—农业基础科学]