节能减排的作用效果有多大——基于能源回弹效应的思考  

The Role of Efficiency in Energy Conservation:Research Based on the Energy Rebound Effect

作　　者：谢海棠[1] 张旭昆[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第4期208-213,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：能源效率改进将造成产出增加进而导致能源消耗回弹,深入探讨能源效率提高引起的回弹效应对能源理论和政策制定具有重大意义。基于三要素生产函数,引入能源技术函数,利用我国1978—2010年的统计数据,估算宏观层面上的能源回弹效应。研究表明:我国宏观层面的短期能源回弹效应为31.8%,长期回弹效应为34.24%;粗放式的经济增长方式是造成我国能源回弹效应高于发达国家的主要原因;单纯依靠技术手段无法有效降低能源消耗,解决能源约束问题需要在提高能源使用效率同时配合其他政策手段。Technology policies are the most favorable options for energy conservation and emission reduction. However, gains in the efficiency of energy will result in an expand output, partially offsetting the impact of the efficiency gain in energy consumption. Therefore, research on the energy rebound effect due to efficiency improvement has a great significance for energy theory and policy formulation. In order to estimate the energy rebound effect on macroeconomic level in China, we present a framework incorporating three input factors of neoclassical product function and energy technology function. With the data from 1978 -2010, we can draw several conclusions below. First, the short -term rebound effect on macro- economic level in China is about 31.8% , and the long - term rebound effect is about 34.24%. Second, Chinese extensive growth mode is the main reason why the rebound effects in China are higher than the rebound effects in the developed countries. Third, to thoroughly solve the problem of energy constraint, we need to combine technology innovation with other policies.

关 键 词：技术进步 能源消耗 能源效率 回弹效应 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]