T511L60全球中期数值预报性能统计评估  

Evaluation of global medium range forecast system of T511L60

作　　者：甘少华 单军辉 郭卫东 

机构地区：[1]空军气象中心,北京100843

出　　处：《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期107-111,共5页Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家973计划资助项目(2010CB951604)

摘　　要：为了客观研究T511L60全球中期数值预报系统的性能特征,采用WMO(World Meteorological Or-ganization)推荐的标准化的统计方法,对2008年5月到2010年5月累积2年的500hPa形势场和降水预报资料进行了检验评估。形势场检验结果表明,T511L60全球中期数值预报在北半球的可用天数非常接近7d,在亚洲地区的可用天数在6～7d。降水检验结果表明,T511L60模式在中国地区的5d小雨预报TS评分和预报偏差评分优于日本模式降水预报。To study the characteristics of the global medium range forecast system of T511L60 operating, standardized statistics methods recommended by World Meteorological Organization（WMO） were conduc- ted using the forecast data from May 2008 to May 2010 in the paper. The verification results of 500 hPa height show the nearly seven days valuable forecast time over the North Hemisphere and between six and seven days valuable forecast time over Asia. Rain verifications show that the T511L60 system has better performance in the threat score and forecast bias than Japan model over China in the five day slight rain forecast. Results also show that the same performance or better performance in the heavy rain and storm rain but lower performance in the moderate rain compared with the Japan model.

关 键 词：T511L60 距平相关 均方根误差 TS评分 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]