人口长期均衡发展:15个国家的比较研究  

Measuring and Evaluating the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population among 15 Countries

作　　者：王颖[1] 黄进[1] 赵娟莹[2] 张灿坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学管理学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学物理系,北京100875

出　　处：《人口与发展》2012年第6期97-103,共7页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09CRK004)资助

摘　　要：对世界15个国家的人口长期均衡状态和程度进行了分析和比较。在界定了内涵的基础上构建了由四级指标体系构成的评价模型。对人口、经济、社会、资源、环境五个子系统的发展状况进行了比较分析;对人口长期均衡发展的整体水平进行了国家间的比较;对15个国家人口长期发展的均衡程度进行了评价;分析了关键指标和区域发展的规律性。日本、加拿大、美国和澳大利亚四个国家五大系统的整体发展水平最高;从均衡的发展程度上看,澳大利亚和加拿大是处在高发展水平之上的均衡。中国无论从发展的均衡程度上还是在发展水平上都仅仅高于印度等少数几个发展中国家。This paper identified the meaning of the long - term balanced Development of the population , developed the set of monitoring and measuring indicators for population development, By using data with population development- relevant indications in 15 countries between 2002 - 2006, it conducted empirical testing for the model, and results indicated that Canada and Australia. were the countries with the high level of balanced population;and the level and the degree of the long - term balanced development of the population in China is comparatively low iamong the 15 counties.

关 键 词：人口 均衡 发展 模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]