基于独立信息数据波动赋权的泥石流危险度评价  

Evaluation of debris flow risk based on independent information data fluctuation weighting method

作　　者：陈鹏宇[1] 余宏明[1] 刘勇[2] 李才[1] 彭祖武[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)机电学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《岩土力学》2013年第2期449-454,共6页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(No.CUGL100227);岩土钻掘与防护教育部工程研究中心开放研究基金项目(No.2010078025);河南省国土资源厅2011年度"两权价款"地质科研项目栾川县区域泥石流形成机制研究(No.2011-622-23)

摘　　要：针对经典泥石流危险度评价中以灰色关联度作为次要危险因子筛选依据的不足,采用复相关系数作为泥石流次要危险因子筛选的依据,从而建立了泥石流危险度评价的主要危险因子与次要危险因子组合的多因子体系。在此基础上,针对次要危险与主要危险因子之间存在显著相关性,同时为了体现次要危险因子对泥石流危险度的贡献作用,采用独立信息数据波动赋权法计算泥石流次要危险因子的权重,建立了泥石流危险度评价的计算公式。以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果,计算结果比经典方法更符合次要因子的补充地位,从而证明了该方法的合理性。In view of the deficiencies of grey relational analysis used in current ways for selecting secondary risk factors when evaluating debris flow risk,multiple correlation coefficient is used to select secondary risk factors.Thus,multiple factor system consisted of primary risk factors and secondary risk factors for evaluating debris flow risk is established.On this basis,a new independent information data fluctuation weighting method is used to calculate the weights of secondary risk factors.With the new weighting method,the relations among the primary risk factors and secondary risk factors can be decreased and the contribution of secondary risk factors to debris flow risk can be expressed.With the selected factors and weights,the calculation formula of debris flow risk is proposed.Then the new formula is taken to calculate the debris flow risk of 12 debris flow gullies in Dongchuan city.The results coincide with the added status of secondary factors which improves the rationality of the method.

关 键 词：危险度 泥石流 独立信息数据波动赋权法 复相关系数 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]