贫信息状态下的XLPE电力电缆绝缘状态预测  

XLPE Power Cable Insulation Forecast of State under Poor State in Information

作　　者：邓卓奇[1] 阮国恒[1] 赵赢峰[2] 周利军[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司清远供电局,广东清远511515 [2]西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《电气开关》2012年第4期88-90,92,共4页Electric Switchgear

摘　　要：运用灰色系统理论,建立电缆绝缘状态灰色预测模型,解决信息匮乏条件下电缆绝缘状态预判问题;利用灰色预测模型评估了15kV电缆绝缘状态变化趋势。结果表明,灰色预测值与实验值拟合度较好,灰色预测模型具有较高的准确度。Use of grey system theory,a grey forecast model under cable insulation state is built up,solving the prejudement problem of the cable insulation state under poor conditions in information.The grey forecast model is used to estimate the changing trend of 15kV cable insulation state.The result shows that the match of the grey forecast value and experiment value is better and the grey forecast model is of higher accuracy.

关 键 词：灰色理论 电缆 贫信息 预测 

分 类 号：TM24[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]