2008-2010年山东省居民饮用水碘空间分布特征分析  

Spatial distribution characteristics of iodine in drinking water in Shandong province between year 2008 and 2010

作　　者：高杰[1,2] 张志杰 王增亮 边建朝[1] 王金彪[1] 蒋雯[1] 王晓明[1] 姜庆五 

机构地区：[1]山东省地方病防治研究所,济南250014 [2]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室复旦大学公共卫生学院空间分析与建模实验室复旦大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2013年第1期18-22,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（81102167,81172609）;全国博士学位论文作者专项资金（201186）;高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金（20110071120040）

摘　　要：目的应用空间自相关分析探讨山东省居民饮用水碘水平及空间分布特征。方法以山东省作为研究现场，收集2008--2010年山东省地方病防治研究所的县级水平水碘资料。全省共采集140个县的108164份水样。将水碘资料与电子地图相匹配，构建空间数据库，分别计算全局Moran’S，和局部Moran’S，指数，并采用SaTScan软件进行统计，探讨山东省饮用水碘的分布的空间自相关性及聚集范围。结果根据国家水源性碘缺乏、水源性高碘地区和高碘病区的标准，将各区县进一步分组，缺碘（水碘〈10μg／L）县区有90个，适碘（10～150μg/L）县区有31个，高碘（〉150μg／L）县区有19个。从整个研究区域看，山东省目前居民饮用水水碘分布具有空间自相关性（Moran’S，=0．52，Z=7．4，P〈0．01）。从局部范围看，山东省西部的德州市、聊城市、菏泽市有18个县区居民饮用水水碘的分布具有空间聚集性，局部Moran’s，指数在0．22～1．00之间（P〈0．01），且均为高．高聚集的空间正相关模式。利用SaTScan软件空间分析共探测出2个聚集区域，聚集中心分别为夏津县和定陶县，聚集半径分别为57．47、65．58km，包含20个县区，分析结果与局部空间自相关的结果基本吻合。结论山东省饮用水碘分布存在明显的空间自相关，具有较强的空间异质性。Objective To detect the spatial distribution characteristics of iodine in drinking water of residents in Shandong province with spatial autocorrelation analysis. Methods The county-based study set Shandong province as a research site. A total of 108 164 water samples from 140 counties were collected. The drinking water iodine data in county-level city between 2008 to 2010 were obtained from Shandong Institute of Prevention and Control for Endemic Disease and was merged with an electronic map to build a spatial database. Global and local Moran＇s I index were calculated, respectively, and spatial autocorrelation and cluster range of iodine distribution in drinking water in Shandong province were studied by SaTScan software. Results All counties were further grouped according to the ＂ criteria of delimitation for IDD endemic areas＂ and ＂determination and classification of the areas of high water iodine and the endemic areas of iodine excess goiter＂, and 90 counties were iodine deficiency （ 〈 10 μg/L）,31 were iodine suitable （ 10 - 150μg/L） ,and 19 （ 〉 150μg/L） were high iodine. For the overall study area,the iodine distribution in drinking water in Shandong province existed spatial autocorrelation （ Moran＇ s I = 0. 52, Z = 7.4, P 〈 0. 01 ）. For the local scale,the drinking water iodine in 18 counties of Dezhou, Liaocheng and Heze city in western Shandong province was clustered, the local Moran＇s I were between 0. 22 - 1. 00 （P 〈 0. 01 ）, which were all high-high clusters,indicating the positive spatial correlation. Spatial analysis using SaTScan software detected two cluster areas including 20 counties, which the centers located in Xiajin and Dingtao county, the cluster radiuses were 57.47 km and 65.58 km respectively. The analysis results were consistent with the results of local spatial autocorrelation. Conclusion There are apparent spatial autocorrelation and strong spatial heterogeneity existed in the iodine distribution in drink water in Shandong province.

关 键 词：碘 水 地理信息系统 空间自相关 空间流行病学 

分 类 号：R599[医药卫生—内科学]