基于模糊可变模型的城市防洪体系风险分析  

Variable fuzzy evaluation model based risk analysis on urban flood control system

作　　者：王海峰[1] 李金娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水电学院,河北邯郸056021 [2]张家口职业技术学院,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2013年第2期134-137,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金资助项目(D2009000827)

摘　　要：采用模糊可变模型对某市防洪体系存在的风险进行分析,针对城市防洪体系风险分析的权重确定问题,引入了水库、堤防、滞洪区、分洪闸、水利投入比重、堤防达标率等六个评价指标,计算了该市防洪风险特征值。计算结果为1.539,介于微险与轻险之间,与线性模型得到的结论基本一致,但略偏于轻险。该方法操作简单,解决了城市防洪风险分析繁琐,分析过程指标权重是否合理等问题,并且便于实际分析应用。The risk in the flood control system of a city is analyzed herein with variable fuzzy evaluation model ; in which the six evaluation indexes such as reservoir, dyke, detention basin, flood diversion gate, water conservancy input proportion, standard- reaching rate of dyke, etc. are induced into the calculation of the risk characteristic value for determining the weight for the risk analysis on the urban flood control system of the city. The calculation result is 1. 539, which is between less risk and light risk and basically coincides with the conclusion from the linear model concerned, however, slightly deflects to the light risk. This method is simply to be operated and then solves the problems, i. e. the analysis on the urban flood risk is more miscellaneous and whether the index weights for the analysis are reasonable or not, thus, is convenient for the practical apphcation,

关 键 词：城市防洪 模糊可变评价模型 风险分析 评价指标 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]