大渡河流域近51年降水径流特征分析  

Characteristic Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in Daduhe River in Last 51 Years

作　　者：程珂[1] 周东升 李铭[1] 詹伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水电顾问集团成都勘测设计研究院,四川成都610072 [2]民航西南空管局气象中心,四川成都610202

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第2期5-8,240,共5页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：为给大渡河流域水资源科学开发利用提供参考依据,根据大渡河流域1960～2010年流域的降水和径流资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Morlet小波变换、肯德尔秩次相关法和双累积曲线等方法,分析了年降水、年径流和年降水—年径流关系。结果表明,流域年降水量呈增加趋势但不明显;流域年降水存在准4～7、8～13、23～27年的振荡周期,未来10年将处于多雨期;年径流与年降水变化趋势一致,年径流变化主要受降雨影响。In order to provide a reference for the development and utilization of water resources of Daduhe River,according to the rainfall and runoff data from 1960 to 2010,linear trend estimation method,Morlet wavelet transform,Kendall rank correlation method and double cumulative curve are applied to analyze the annual rainfall,runoff and rainfall-runoff variation.The results show that the annual precipitation in river basin appears increased trend,but the increasing trend is not obvious;the precipitation has oscillating period of 4～7,8～13 and 23～27 years;it will be rainy period in the next 10 years;annual runoff and precipitation has the same variation trend;the annual runoff variation is mainly affected by the rainfall.

关 键 词：大渡河 降水—径流变化 双累积曲线 特征分析 

分 类 号：TV882.8[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV121