降水对西安黄金周旅游影响的模拟评估研究  

The effects of precipitation on tourism during "Gold Week" and assessment in Xi′an City

作　　者：雷向杰[1] 张文静[1] 赵晓萌[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期133-138,共6页Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY201006032);陕西省科学技术研究发展计划基金资助项目(2011k17-02-03);陕西省气象局2010年气象科技创新基金资助项目(2010M-19)

摘　　要：目的利用西安28个黄金周逐日降水和旅游资料建立降水对黄金周国内旅游收入、游客人数影响模拟方程,为黄金周国内旅游预估提供理论根据和方法。方法通过查阅文献资料和收集相关数据,将黄金周降水分为4种类型,分别确定降水影响国内旅游收入和游客人数虚拟指数,构建模拟方程,对黄金周国内旅游情况进行模拟。结果模拟效果总体较好。有4个黄金周模拟效果较差,其中两个是因为除降水影响外,还受到冰冻雨雪灾害等的影响。另外两个是由上年影响造成的,通过订正模拟可以消除影响,达到较好的模拟效果。结论引入降水影响虚拟指数,建立模拟方程和订正模拟方法,可以较好地模拟西安黄金周国内旅游收入和游客人数。根据黄金周天气预报判定其降水类型,利用模拟方程、上年国内旅游收入和游客人数就可以对当年黄金周国内旅游收入和游客人数做出比较准确的预估。Aim By analyzing the data of daily precipitation and domestic tourism of Xi＇an City during 28 Golden Weeks, the equation is established to simulate the precipitation＇s effects on domestic tourism revenues and the num- ber of visitors, offering the theory and method for Golden Week domestic tourism forecast. Methods The precipita- tion during Golden Weeks is classified as four types to establish equation of precipitation＇s effects on domestic tourism revenues and the number of visitors virtual index. Results results are poor, two of which are affected by precipitation, the result of last year, which can be eliminated by revisal effects on virtual index and correction method can simulate freezing Simulation results overall are good. Four of the rain and snow. The other two are affected by simply. Conclusion The equation of precipitation＇s domestic tourism revenues and the number of visitors. According to the weather forecast to determine the Golden Week precipitation type, the domestic tourism revenues and the number of visitors can be estimated by simulation equation and correction method, by using domestic tourism revenues and the number of visitors of last year.

关 键 词：黄金周 降水对旅游的影响 模拟和预评估 西安市 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]