门限自回归模型预测软土地基沉降  

Consolidation Settlement Forecasting of Soft Soil Foundation with Threshold-regressive Model

作　　者：简文彬[1] 吴振祥[1] 蔺保云[1] 李建峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学岩土工程与工程地质研究所,福建福州350108

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2013年第1期140-143,共4页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：以某在建港区软土地基处理工程为例,基于现场监测原始数据,采用时间序列分析方法建立软土地基沉降预测的门限自回归模型,运用最小信息准则(AIC)进行模型参数估计。结果表明,所建立的预测模型其一步预测值精度较高,并可以实现计算机在线建模,对工程进行实时监控,适合该在建港区软土地基处理工程的固结沉降预测。Taking the soft soil foundation treatment of a constructing port area for example and on the basis of the original data monitored from the site, a nonlinear time series analysis method is used to establish the threshold-regressive model for the forecasting of the consolidation settlement of soft clay ground, and the AIC criterion is used to determine the model parameters. The results show that the model＇s one-step forecasting value is more accurate, and it is possible to actualize the on-line modeling with computer so as to monitor the project synchronously. The model in this paper is suitable for forecasting the consolidation settlement of the soft soil foundation treatment in the constructing port area.

关 键 词：软土地基 沉降预测 非线性时间序列模型 AIC准则 

分 类 号：TU447[建筑科学—岩土工程]