底板突水预测模型的影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors Analysis of Floor Water Invasion Prediction Model

作　　者：祁春燕[1,2] 邱国庆[3] 张海荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉市住房保障和房屋管理局,武汉市高雄路166号430015 [2]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州市大学路1号221008 [3]解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院,南京市海福港1号210007

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2013年第2期153-156,247,共5页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室(中国矿业大学)开放基金资助项目(20080105)

摘　　要：通过复合分析方法建立煤矿底板突水模型,对突水模型的不确定性进行分析,衡量复合分析中各因素对底板突水危险性分区结果的影响,并通过灵敏度分析对引起分区面积变化的因素进行排序,实验得出等效厚度的计算是影响结果的主要因素,可以为矿山水害防治提供科学的决策依据。Floor water invasion is one of influences on mine safety. Water invasion models were complicated and various, under different conditions, water invasion models were different leading to the analysis uncertain results. Floor water invasion model was built by com-pound analysis technology and its uncertainties were analyzed in this paper. The risk of floor water invasion was zoned and influencing factors were sorted by sensitive analysis technolo-gy. Experment results show that equivalent thickness was the most important factor for reference to make decision of flooding prevention and cure.

关 键 词：不确定性 底板突水 复合分析 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学] P208[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]