基于实证研究的绿色建筑项目风险识别与评估  

Risk Identification and Evaluation of Green Building Projects Based on Empirical Study

作　　者：万欣[1,2] 秦旋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学,厦门361021 [2]东南大学,南京210096

出　　处：《建筑科学》2013年第2期54-61,共8页Building Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于全寿命周期和利益相关者视角的绿色建筑风险对比研究"(51148010);中央高校基本科研业务经费资助项目(JB-ZR1122)

摘　　要：绿色建筑的风险较一般建筑有所不同,对绿色建筑项目的风险进行识别和评估,可为建设主体更好地管理绿色建筑风险提供有益参考。本文首先通过文献研读和专家访谈,识别出影响我国绿色建筑项目成功的62项风险因素,构建了绿色建筑的风险清单。而后,采用问卷调查和统计分析的方法,对我国绿色建筑项目风险的发生概率、危害程度和重要性进行了评估。发现风险发生概率较高的风险有2类,一类是缺少绿色建筑经验造成的风险,另一类是绿色建筑自身特殊性造成的风险。另外,危害程度较严重的风险除不可抗力风险外,材料和设备的质量不合格是对绿色建筑项目危害性最大的风险,其次是设计缺陷风险和承包商能力差风险。在此基础上综合考虑风险发生的概率和危害程度,得出了风险重要性排在前15位的关键风险,前3位风险与从事绿色建筑项目的经验和施工能力有关。进一步分析不同类别专家看法的差异,发现实业界专家与学术界专家共有5项风险存在显著性差异,相比之下实业界专家更为悲观。As risks of green buildings are different from general buildings,identifying and evaluating risks of green buildings can provide helpful references for construction participants who will manage green building risks more effectively.In this paper,through the way of literature study and expert interview,a risk list consisted of 62 risk factors that affected the success of green buildings in China was established.And then,questionnaire survey and statistical analysis methods were used to evaluate the risk probability,risk impact and risk significance.It was concluded that risks with great probability could be divided into two kinds,one was the risks which caused by lacking of green building experience,the other was the risks which resulted from green buildings＇ distinctiveness.As for risks with serious impact,inferior quality of materials and equipment was considered to be the most harmful risk besides force majeure,the second and the third were the design defects and contractors＇ poor working ability respectively.Considering risk probability and risk impact,15 key risks were determined according to the risk significance,and the risks ranked top three were relevant to participants＇ green building working experience and capacity to construct.Furthermore,the diversity of the opinions from different types of experts was further analyzed.It was concluded that academic experts and industry experts had significantly different views on 5 risks,and industry experts were more pessimistic.

关 键 词：绿色建筑 风险识别与评估 专家访谈 问卷调查 统计分析 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]