煤矿安全生产法律法规实效性的(安全作用)虚拟变量模型分析  

Dummy Variable Model Analyzing for Effectiveness(Security Roles) of Laws And Regulations on China Coal Mine Safety Production

作　　者：陈林[1] 谭海霞[2] 任唤麟[3] 王宏图[4] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地矿局地质矿产勘查院,云南昆明650051 [2]云南民族大学管理学院,云南昆明650500 [3]安徽淮北师范大学历史与社会学院,安徽淮北235000 [4]重庆大学西南资源开发及环境灾害控制工程教育部重点实验室,重庆400030

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第3期73-82,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50774106);国家自然科学创新群体基金(50921063)

摘　　要：为了弄清我国煤矿安全生产因素对安全生产的影响程度,建立了百万吨煤死亡率与影响煤矿安全生产五个主要指标(采煤机械化程度、煤矿工程技术人员配备率、全国人均GDP、原煤生产全员工效和吨煤基本建设投入)之间的多元回归模型,结果显示采煤机械化程度、吨煤基本建设投入和全国人均GDP对百万吨煤死亡率有着较大影响,其中全国人均GDP对百万吨煤死亡率起着负的作用.为了比较分析20世纪90年代以来有关煤矿安全生产的一些重要法律的法律法规实效性的安全作用的方向和大小,建立了多元虚拟变量回归模型,研究表明,有关煤矿安全生产的"三法律一条例"实效性的安全作用平均使得百万吨煤死亡率降低0.895人;"三法律一条例"的实效性表明,法律条款中的经济处罚和制裁条款与经济发展水平越符合,法治力度越强,其执行效果越好.To make clear the effect of safety factors on coal mine safety production in China, a multiple regression model for describing the relationship between the death rate per million tons coal and five key indicators on coal mine safety production （including mechanical level of mining, rate of coal professional personnel in whole employed persons, per capita GDP, all-personnel labor efficiency of coal face workers and investment in capital construction per ton coal） was established. The results show that mechanical level of mining and investment in capital construction per ton coal have positive effects on coal mine safety production, and per capita GDP has a negative effect. For comparative analyzing the direction and magnitude of three significant laws and one regulation on coal mine safety production since 1990, a multiple dummy variable model was established. The study finds that the effectiveness （security rolest of three laws and one regulation make the death rate reduce by 0.895 person per million tons coal. And the terms of economic penalties and sanctions would be closely consistent with the level of economic development, and the greater punishment, the better its implementation.

关 键 词：煤矿安全生产 法律 虚拟变量模型 比较分析 

分 类 号：D922.54[政治法律—民商法学] TD79[政治法律—法学]