实体产业空心化导致发达国家的高主权杠杆?——基于发达国家主权债务危机的实证分析  

Do Hollow Real Industries Lead to High Sovereign Leverage in Developed Countries? Empirical Study Based on the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Developed Countries

作　　者：范小云[1] 孙大超[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《财经研究》2013年第3期112-122,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部重大攻关项目(09JZD0016);教育部重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790027)

摘　　要：为了探索本次发达国家主权债务危机的深层次原因,文章使用60个国家和地区2001-2010年的面板数据,通过构建虚拟变量的动态面板数据模型和半参数面板数据模型对实体产业空心化程度与政府杠杆率之间的相关性和传导机制进行了计量检验和分析。研究结果表明,实体产业占GDP比重与政府杠杆率之间显著负相关,而这种负向作用主要通过影响实际GDP增长率、预算收入占GDP比重、失业率和经常项目余额占GDP比重进行传导,并且在面临金融危机时,这种影响会显著加强。文章最后结合研究结论和中国现状提出了相关政策建议。In order to explore the underlying reasons for this sovereign debt crisis in developed countries, this paper constructs a dynamic panel data model and a semi-parametric panel data model with adummy variable to test and analyze econometrically the correlation between hollow real industries and government leverage rate and its transmission mechanism by the panel data of sixty countries or regions from 2001 to 2010. The empirical results show that there is significantly negative correlation between the percentage of real industries in GDP and government leverage rate,which is transmitted by its effects on real growth rate of GDP,the percentage of budget revenues in GDP, unemployment rate and the percentage of the balance of current ac- count in GDP, especially in financial crisis. At last, it gives relevant policy suggestions according to the conclusions abovementioned and the real situation in China.

关 键 词：实体产业空心化 政府杠杆率 传导机制 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]