适应规划:概念、方法学及案例  

Adaptation Planning: Concept,Methodology and Case Study

作　　者：郑艳[1,2] 潘家华[1,2] 廖茂林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京100005

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第3期132-139,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:70933005);中-英-瑞士"中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC)"联合资助

摘　　要：在全球气候和环境变化的大背景下,国际社会近些年来积极推动基于适应性管理理念的适应规划决策及实践。针对国内日益迫切的政策需求,本文对适应规划的概念、内容和方法学进行了详细介绍,指出适应规划的理念是适应性管理,适应规划的内容包括规划目标、参与主体、构成要素等,研究步骤包括:①确定适应规划的目标和范围;②气候脆弱性及风险评估;③适应对策甄别及评估;④制定适应战略及规划;⑤政策实施及评估。最后,本文对于如何开展适应对策评估进行了示例分析,这有助于为国内开展适应规划的理论和实践研究提供思路和借鉴。Under the changing climate and environment, international communities recently have been promoting adaptation planning and practices based on adaptative management. In response to an ever increasing demand for adaptation policy in China, this paper provides detailed discussion on concepts, contents and methodology of adaptation planning. It suggests that adaptative management is the core of adaptation planning. Adaptation planning mainly includes the following five steps ： 1 ） identify adaptation objectives and scoping; 2） vulnerability and risk assessment; 3 ） identify and prioritize adaptation options; 4 ） design and implement adaptation strategy ; and 5 ） monitoring and evaluation. For illustration, a case study is presented in the paper to show how adaptation planning can be carried out in a real world context. Thus, the paper contributes to the theory and practice of adaptation planning in China.

关 键 词：气候变化 适应规划 适应性管理 方法学 政策评估 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F069