城市典型生命线系统耦联多维测度方法研究  

Study on Multi-dimensional Measurement Method for System Coupling of Urban Typical Lifelines

作　　者：索玮岚[1] 陈锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第3期140-145,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目"关联情境下城市典型生命线运行综合风险评估方法与应用研究"(编号:20110490608)

摘　　要：以供热、电力、燃气系统为代表的典型生命线是城市运行的重要基础设施,其具有的系统耦联性往往会诱发系统运行异常的不良连锁效应。系统耦联测度研究对于识别城市典型生命线各系统之间的复杂耦联关系并优化其布局与运行具有重要意义。针对城市典型生命线系统耦联测度问题,首先以结构性、功能性和阶段性维度为切入点进行了系统耦联机理分析;然后提出了一种基于主客观信息的系统耦联多维测度方法,借助二元语义表示模型与决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)法处理和集结各维度的主客观耦联信息,进而通过计算各系统的中心耦联度和关系耦联度来确定系统耦联的强弱和类型;最后应用所提方法测度了北京某样区内城市典型生命线的系统耦联性。结果表明:中心耦联度值最高的电力系统在系统耦联中发挥了显著作用;关系耦联度为负值的供热系统为结果型耦联系统,关系耦联度为正值的电力和燃气系统为原因型耦联系统;需要根据测度结果制定针对性的优化策略。Urban typical lifelines, i. e. , heating, electricity and gas systems, are vital and basic infrastructures for urban operation. Coupling phenomena among these systems often induce the poor cascading effect of abnormal operation. Study on system coupling measurement is significant to identify the complex coupling relationships among systems of urban typical lifelines and to improve their placement and operation. In this paper, firstly, mechanism analysis on system coupling of urban typical lifelines is conducted from the structural, functional and phased dimensions. Then, a multi-dimensional measurement method for system coupling based on subjective and objective information is proposed. By processing and aggregating subjective and objective coupling information on these dimensions according to ideas of 2-tuple linguistic representation model as well as decision making trial and evaluation laboratory （DEMATEL）, the prominence and relation couple degrees of each system are calculated to determine the coupling role and classification of each system. Finally, the proposed method is applied to conduct the multi-dimensional measurement for system coupling of urban typical lifeline in a sample area of Beijing. The results show that： 1 ） electricity system with the highest value of prominence coupling degree plays an important role in system coupling; 2） heating system with the negative value of relation couple degree is an effect coupling system, while electricity and gas system with the positive value of relation couple degree is a cause coupling system; 3） it is necessary to make targeted policies for optimizing the operation of urban typical lifeline according to the measurement results.

关 键 词：城市典型生命线 系统耦联 多维测度方法 机理分析 优化策略 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学] C934