基于风险厌恶的供应链订货时机分析  

Analysis of Order Timing based on Risk Aversion in Supply Chain

作　　者：熊恒庆[1,2] 黄勇[1] 杨建仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]景德镇陶瓷学院工商学院,江西景德镇333403 [2]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第1期63-70,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(70332001)

摘　　要：基于报童模型,在一个由风险厌恶型制造商和零售商组成的供应链中,分析了三种供应链订货时机:预先订货、延迟订货、柔性订货,并调查了风险厌恶对供应链的影响。不同于已有文献关于风险中性的假设,发现由于风险厌恶,在预先订货方式下零售商有最小化订货量的倾向,在延迟订货方式下制造商有最小化生产量的倾向;进一步的分析结果显示在一定条件下零售商将削减订货量至少一半,制造商利润减少至少一半。为此设计了特许费契约进行协调。认为提升企业信心、消除风险厌恶引起的不利影响,在经济萧条时有着非常重要的作用。Based on the newsboy model, three types of order timing are analyzed in a supply chain which consists of a risk-averse manufacturer and a risk-averse retailer. The three types of order timing are advance order, delayed order and flexible order. The influence of risk aversion on the supply chain is also examined. Different from literatures about risk neutral assumption, the results show that due to risk aversion,the retailer tends to minimize his order quantity under the mode of advance order, and the manufaeturer tends to minimize her production quantity under the mode of delayed order. Further analysis shows that the retailer may cut his order quantity by at least half and the manufacturer＇s profit may be reduced by at least half under certain conditions. So a Franchisee fee contract is employed to coordinate. It is suggested that enhancing business confidence and eliminating adverse influence play a very important role during economic depression.

关 键 词：订货时机 订货延迟 风险厌恶 供应链协调 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F253