生态城市水资源承载力的系统动力学仿真  

Systematic Dynamic Simulation of Water Resources Supporting Capacity of Ecological City

作　　者：佘思敏[1] 胡雨村[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083

出　　处：《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期126-131,共6页Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2008ZX07314-005)资助项目

摘　　要：水资源承载力是约束生态城市建设和发展的重要因素.根据水资源与社会、经济、生态之间的耦合关系,建立水资源承载力的系统动力学模型,通过仿真结果与历史数据的对比,验证模型可行性.以中新生态城的选址区域:滨海新区为研究对象,针对不同发展模式下的水资源供需情况进行动态的预测和分析,结果表明经济发展用水对水资源供需差额的影响远远大于生态用水和生活用水;综合型发展模式是滨海新区在水资源承载力约束下社会经济发展的最优途径.提出控制经济发展用水、保护水源地、开发非传统水源等可持续发展的对策,可为缺水地区生态城市的建设提供参考.The development of eco-city is constrained by water resource carrying capacity in every aspect. To build a systematic dynamic model according to the coupling association among water resources, social economic, population and ecological environment is a common method of analyzing the interrelationship constraint. By comparing with the actual data from 2005 to 2010, the model is proved to be effective. This article took Binhai New Area, the site location of Tianjin coo-city, as an example, to analysis on the water supply and demand trend and the water resource structure under five different modes. The results show that the water demand of economic development is the main reason of water shortages, and the integrated development model is the optimal choice. Local government should take measures to control the water demand of economic development, protect the potable water sources and develop non-conditional water resources.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 系统动力学仿真 生态城市 滨海新区 可持续发展 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]