一种供用水系统的风险分析与评价方法  

A method for risk analysis and evaluation of water supply and demand

作　　者：阮本清[1] 梁瑞驹[1] 陈韶君[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100044

出　　处：《水利学报》2000年第9期1-7,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究"973"项目! (G19990 4 360 2 )

摘　　要：本文以黄河下游沿黄地区供用水系统为例 ,针对该地区用水系统与黄河来水的不同步性 ,建立了水资源系统风险分析模拟模型 .描述了蒙特卡洛 (M C)随机模拟技术求解风险模拟模型的原理 .对黄河下游供用水系统在不同用水规模情况下的缺水风险进行了随机模拟 .结果表明 :黄河下游沿黄地区在没有外流域水输入前及用水定额没有较大变化的情况下 ,其灌溉规模以不超过 2 33万hm2 为宜 .The risk analysis simulation model for water resources in the downstream area of Yellow River is established in this paper. The non\|synchronous characteristic of the relationship between water consumption and runoff of the Yellow River is considered. the Monte Carlo method is applied to the modeling. The risks of water shortage under the conditions of various scale of water consumption are simulated randomly. The result indicates that the irrigation area should be limited to less than 2,330,000hm 2, in case new water resources failed to be developed and the norm of water consumption not being significantly change.

关 键 词：黄河下游 供用水系统 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV213.4