近50年影响珠江流域热带气旋的气候特征分析  

Analysis of Climatological Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Peal River Basin in the Past 50 Years

作　　者：胡娅敏[1] 杜尧东[1] 罗晓玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《广东气象》2012年第6期1-3,共3页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40905043);中英瑞适应气候变化项目(ACCC/2010527);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-25)共同资助

摘　　要：对1961～2010年影响珠江流域的热带气旋(TC)进行统计分析,结果得到,近50年年均4.24个TC影响珠江流域,其中台风以上等级1.02个,两者以每10年0.3个逐渐减少。其平均中心气压为984.0 hPa,平均极端最低气压为968.7 hPa,前者无明显的变化趋势,后者每10年减弱1.4 hPa。影响珠江流域热带气旋生成源地的平均最南位置为10.3°N,平均最北位置为17.5°N,两者均表现出向北移动的倾向,其中前(后)者每10年北移0.9°(0.6°),近几年影响珠江流域热带气旋生成源地位置向10°N～19°N区间汇聚。影响珠江流域热带气旋的平均初旋日在7月1日,终旋日在9月15日,台风季为76.5 d,其中初(终)旋日每10年推迟(提前)1.3(6.0)d,台风季以每10年8.2 d的速率减少,20世纪60年代和90年代中后期至21世纪前期处于偏短时期,近几年又开始呈现增长趋势。Statistical analysis is performed of the tropical cyclones （TCs） that affected the Pearl River basin in 1961 - 2010. As shown in the result, over the past 50 years, an annual average of 4. 24 TCs affected the basin, with 1.02 of them at or above the intensity of typhoon. Both of them are decreasing at O. 3 TC every 10 years. Over the years, the average central pressure is 984. 0 hPa and the average extreme minimum pressure is 968.7 hPa; the former does not show any obvious trend of variation while the latter reduces 1.4 hPa every 10 years. For the sources of genesis for the TCs that affect the basin, the average southernmost location is 10. 3°N and the average northernmost position is 17.5°N, both showing a trend of shifting to the north： the former moves 0. 9° and the latter 0. 6° to the north every 10 years, In the past few years, the sources of genesis for these TCs tend to converge within the area between 10°N and 19°N. The average first date of TCs affecting the basin is 1 July and the average last date is 15 September. The TC seon lasts 76. 5 d on average, with the first date of TC postponing 1.3 d and the last date advancing 6. 0 d every 10 years. The FC season decreases at 8.2 d every 10 years; the 1960s and mid and late-1990s through early 2000s are two periods of relatively short TC seasons but a growing trend appears over the past few years.

关 键 词：天气学 热带气旋 气候特征 珠江流域 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]