飞机人工增雨分层历史回归效果检验方法探讨  

Stratified Sampling Historical Regression Method for Aircraft Precipitation Enhancement Effect Test

作　　者：王以琳[1] 李德生[1] 刘诗军[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所,济南250031

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2012年第6期862-870,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006031

摘　　要：在飞机人工增雨中,为提高作业决策和效果检验的客观性,用冰面饱和区、0℃层以上水汽积分量≥9mm区域和水汽向上输送区作为确定作业目标区指标;用碘化银粒子浓度q≥10L-1的区域作为确定作业影响区的范围;用作业目标区、总雨量等值线和相关系数检验等约束条件选择对比区。在建立回归方程时,用天气系统分型和相同作业时段等方法确定回归样本。采用单次活动对比区和影响区分层历史回归方法建立飞机人工增雨效果检验系统并在业务中使用,该方法物理意义明确,在决策作业和效果检验的实践中有重要意义。To strengthen the objectivity of aircraft precipitation enhancement operation decision-making and effect testing, the operation target area can be determined by the ice saturation, accumulated water vapor layer below 0 ℃ thicker than 9 ram, and vertical water vapor transport; the operation effect area can be determined by the zone where the AgI particle concentration is greater than or equal to 10 L-1, and the comparison area can be chosen using the operation target area, total precipitation isoline, and related-coefficient test. When the regression equation is established, the weather system types and the same operation period determine the regression samples. An aircraft precipitation enhancement effect test system was established in which one operation uses stratified sample and historical regression in the variable comparison area and influence area. The system has been used in business. The method has clear physical meaning and is important in operation decision-making and effect testing.

关 键 词：人工增雨 统计检验 历史回归 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]