湖泊流域系统复杂性分析的计算实验方法  

Computational Experiments for Complexity Analysis of Lake-Watershed System

作　　者：盛昭瀚[1] 金帅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会科学计算实验中心,南京210093 [2]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2012年第6期771-780,共10页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家社科重大招标项目(11&ZD169);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71201071;71171099);高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20090091110001);教育部人文社科研究项目(12YJCZH090)

摘　　要：湖泊流域系统日趋凸显的系统复杂性决定了对其研究与治理需要提升对系统复杂性的认知,并把握其长期演化趋势。从复杂系统视角对湖泊流域社会-经济-自然复合系统进行分析,揭示湖泊流域复合系统治理必定是一个复杂巨系统工程。作为复杂性认知新途径,应用计算实验方法分析湖泊流域系统复杂性,对揭示和解释湖泊流域复合系统自组织演化规律、制定相关管理政策提供新的分析视角和工具。With the increasingly emerging complexity of lake-watershed system, it is necessary to enhance the ability to recognize the system complexity, and grasp the evolution trends. From the perspective of complex systems, the complexities of lake-watered social-economic-natural system are analyzed. The analysis highlights the complexity and uncertainty faced in watershed management that make it a complex and arduous systems engineering to manage those systems. As a measure to understand system complexity, a new research framework is established using computational experiment method to provide a new perspective for analysis and tools for revealing and explaining the evolution of self-organization of lake-watershed complex system, and for relevant policy-making.

关 键 词：湖泊流域 复合系统 复杂性 计算实验 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]