预测油田水驱油效率四参数模型  

Four Parameter Model for Forecasting Waterflooding Efficiency in Oilfields

作　　者：刘道杰 田中敬 龚晶晶 李海东 崔建 

机构地区：[1]中石油冀东油田分公司勘探开发研究院,河北唐山063004

出　　处：《石油天然气学报》2013年第2期136-138,1,共3页Journal of Oil and Gas Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50874094)

摘　　要：预测油田水驱油效率对调整油田开发方案、描述剩余油微观分布等具有重要意义。针对油藏水驱油效率随生产时间变化的特性,利用新型增长曲线拟合油藏驱油效率与生产时间的关系,建立了预测驱油效率的四参数模型。以室内水驱岩心试验数据为基础,采用非线性回归方法及多变量寻优算法求解四参数模型,获得4个模型参数值,实现对油田水驱油效率的拟合和预测。实例表明,利用四参数模型获得的水驱油效率拟合曲线与试验值比较相符,预测的水驱油效率与试验值的平均相对误差为1.78%,较其他方法的平均相对误差7.46%和5.36%更精确。该模型的建立为预测油田水驱油效率提供了一种实用、有效的方法。Forecasting waterflooding efficiency in oilfields was of great significance for adjusting oilfield development plan and describing micro-distribution of remaining oil etc.In allusion to the characteristics of reservoir waterflooding efficiency changing with production time,the new increase curve fitting relations between displacement efficiency and production time was used to establish a 4 parameter model.Based on data of core displacement from laboratory test,the 4 parameter model was solved by using nonlinear regress and multivariate optimization algorithm.After determining values of the model parameters,fitting and forecast for waterflooding efficiency in oilfield were implemented.The case study shows that the fitted curve from the new model agrees well with test values.Meanwhile,an average relative error between the new model and test values is 1.78%,compared with other methods the error is 7.46% and 5.36%,it is more accurate.Thus,this model provides a practical and effective means for forecasting waterflooding efficiency in oilfields.

关 键 词：驱油效率 四参数模型 预测 水驱油 

分 类 号：TE327[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]