塔里木河流域径流量周期特征及其影响因素  

Periodic Properties of Runoff Changes of the Tarim River Basin: Possible Causes and Implications

作　　者：孙鹏[1,2] 张强[1,2] 白云岗[3] 张江辉 陈晓宏 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第2期216-222,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：水利部公益项目(201001066);新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105);国家自然科学基金项目(41071020;50839005);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助

摘　　要：采用交叉小波变换与小波相干方法分析了塔里木河流域近40 a来年径流量、年降水量和年平均温度的周期特征,结果表明：塔河流域年径流量、年降水量和年均温度存在2.0-6.0 a左右的显著周期变化,除卡群站年径流量周期变化不显著,其余水文站的年径流量周期强烈震荡主要分布于20世纪60年代中后期至70年代以及90年代以后;各站年降水量的显著周期主要分布于20世纪80年代以后;年均气温显著周期主要分布于20世纪60年代中后期至70年代。同古孜洛克和卡群的径流量显著周期变化主要受和田和莎车降水量的影响;沙里桂兰克1965-1968的径流量显著周期主要是阿合齐气温周期显著变化引起的,20世纪90年代以后阿合齐降水量成为影响径流量周期变化的主要因素;大山口的年径流量周期变化受降水量和气温的共同影响。阿拉尔径流量的周期变化在20世纪70年代主要受源流降水量显著周期变化。由于人口和耕地面积的迅速增加,源流区用水量增加,20世纪90年代以后降水量的周期变化没有引起阿拉尔径流量的周期变化。Annual runoff, annual precipitation and annual mean temperature at five hydrological stations and meteorological stations located in the Tarim River Basin are analyzed using the continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence techniques. The results indicate that： 1） annual runoff, annual precipita-tion and annual mean temperature changes are of 2-4 years periods. Besides Kaqun station, the significant wavelet spectrum of runoff fluctuations is observed mainly during mid 1960s to 1970s and 1990s. However, the significant wavelet spectrum of precipitation and temperature fluctuations in all stations respectively are de-tected mainly in the after 1980s and late 1960s to 1970s. 2） Periodicity properties of runoff changes in Tong-guziluoke and Kaqun stations are mainly due to precipitation variations. While Periodicity of runoff significant-ly changes in Shaliguilanke station are caused by temperature change in 1965-1968, but caused by precipita-tion after 1990s. Precipitation and temperature are together impact periodicity of runoff changes in Dashankou station. However, Periodicity of runoff significantly changes in Alaer station are influenced by precipitation. Because the population and cultivation area are notable increase which lead consumption of water to increase. The increasing precipitation not lead to the periodicity of runoff significantly changes after 1990.

关 键 词：交叉小波 小波相干 周期特征 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：F512.2[经济管理—产业经济]