江苏省梅汛期暴雨特征及其对长江下游水位的影响  

Rainstorm Characteristics During Meiyu Period in Jiangsu and Its Effect on Water Levels of Lower Reaches of the Changjiang River

作　　者：孙燕[1,2] 朱伟军[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第2期238-243,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：江苏省科技厅科技支撑计划社会发展项目(BE2011818);淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM201006);江苏省气象科研开放基金(K201006)资助

摘　　要：利用1961～2009年江苏省逐日降水资料和南京站逐日水文资料,采用模糊聚类、小波分析、相关分析等方法分析了江苏梅汛期暴雨的气候特征及其与长江下游水位的关系。发现,在梅雨期间江苏省大部分区域都会出现暴雨,但也存在明显的地域差异,暴雨量的多寡一定程度上决定了该年梅雨量的丰枯;江苏南、北两个区域梅汛期暴雨均存在多时间尺度特征,但其年际和年代际振荡的周期和强度随时间的变化有不同表现。长江下游南京站6-7月的水位变化与梅雨期暴雨的年际、年代际周期变化和异常年份的发生有一定相似性,江苏南区梅雨期暴雨量与南京水位的相关性通过了0.10的显著性检验,可以认为南京站6-7月水位的高低与梅雨期暴雨具有一定的相关性。By using the daily precipitation data of Jiangsu Province and daily hydrological data of Nanjing City during the period from 1961 to 2009, the climatic characteristics of Meiyu rainstorms in Jiangsu and their rela-tionship with the water levels over the lower reaches of the Changjiang River were analyzed based on the fuzzy clustering, wavelet analysis, correlation analysis and other methods. Results show that during the Meiyu period, although with a significant regional differences, rainstorms appear in most regions of Jiangsu, and the more or less of the maganitude of their rainfall to a certain extent determine the abundance or dry of the total Meiyu rainfall for a certain year. The rainstorms during Meiyu period both in North and South Jiangsu show multiple time scale features, but their period and intensity changes with time have different performance on the interannual and interdecadal time-scale. The water level from June to July in Nanjing has the similar inter-an-nual, decadal periodic variation and abnormal years, and the correlation between the rainfall and water level in Nanjing has passed the 0.1 confidence level of significance test, which suggests a certain close relevance be-tween the water level and rainstorm in Nanjing during the Meiyu period.

关 键 词：梅汛期 暴雨 长江下游 水位 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]