近50年来淮河干流径流演变规律分析  

Analysis of Variation in Runoff of the Main Stream of Huaihe River in the Past 50 Years

作　　者：潘扎荣[1] 阮晓红[1] 朱愿福[1] 李荣富[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,南京210093

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2013年第1期51-55,59,共6页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：水利部公益性行业专项(201001015);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2012ZX07204-003)

摘　　要：基于淮河干流1956-2008年的实测径流资料,从不均匀性和集中程度等方面分析了径流年内分配的时空变化特征,并采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验和距平累积等方法对径流年际变化的趋势性与阶段性进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:(1)淮河干流径流年内分配极不均衡,年际变化较为剧烈。汛期径流量约占年径流量的63%,而最小年径流量仅占多年平均径流量的14.0%～18.2%。1980年以后,径流年内分配不均匀性与集中程度进一步加剧,空间差异有所减小,而集中期则延迟于7月份。(2)年径流量总体表现出递减的变化趋势,且中游递减趋势较上游明显,但均不显著。四季径流量变化趋势与变化幅度不尽相同,息县站和王家坝站仅在春季呈现递减趋势,而鲁台子站与吴家渡站在春、秋季均呈现递减趋势。总体而言,枯水期径流量的进一步减少将加剧流域水资源的供需矛盾。(3)年径流量序列中存在2个持续丰水时段和3个持续枯水时段,且持续枯水时段较持续丰水时段要长。在1996-2008年间,年径流量丰枯交替变化频繁,这主要与该时段流域内降水量年际变化大、旱涝交替出现有关。Based on the 53 years of the observed runoff of the main stream of the Huaihe river, the uneven coefficient of seasonal distribution, eoncentration rate, concentration period and the variation range were analyzed by using mathematics statistics. Meanwhile, the Mann-Kendall test method was employed to detect trends of inter-annual and annual runoff and the stages of the annual runoff was analyzed by using the anomaly accumulation method. Results indicate that： （1）The annual variability of the runoff was violent, and the intra-annual distribution was extremely uneven. The Flood season runoff accounts for about 63% of the annual runoff, and the minimum annual runoff only accounted for 14. 0% - 18. 2% of mean annual average runoff. Since 1980s, intra-annual distribution inhomogeneity and concentration of the runoff further intensifies, the spatial differentiation narrow, and runoff concentration period was delayed in July. （2）The decline trend of annual runoff in the downstream was more significant, but there was no significant tendency. The range and trend of change of the runoff in the four seasons were not exactly the same. Xixian and Wangjiaba station presented decreasing tendency in spring, Lutaizi and Wujiadu stations presented decreasing trend in spring and autumn. On the whole, the runoff in the dry season reduced that might aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. （3） Furthermore, annual runoff series had significant changes which were including two wet stages and three dry stages, and the dry stages were longer than the wet stages. Nevertheless, annual runoff changed alternately and frequently during 1996--2008, this was mainly because that during this time the precipitation annual change was violent, the drought period and flood period appeared alternately.

关 键 词：淮河干流 径流量 年内分配 年际变化 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]