金砖国家间双边贸易成本弹性的测度与分析——基于超越对数引力模型  

Measuring the Bilateral Trade Cost Elasticity between the BRICS

作　　者：周丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院世界经济与政治系

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第3期66-81,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目"金融危机后新兴经济体参与全球经济治理的挑战与我国对策研究"(11CGJ007)的资助

摘　　要：传统引力模型基本以CES效用函数为基础,无法测度贸易成本降低对不同贸易伙伴国间贸易流量的差异化影响程度,Novy(2012)超越对数引力模型弥补了该不足。本文对2000～2010年金砖五国双边贸易成本弹性进行测度,结果显示金砖五国贸易成本弹性在[245,0.48]间取值不等,变化幅度较大。俄罗斯平均贸易成本弹性最高,南非次之,中国最低。南非对巴西和中国贸易成本弹性差值比最高,说明降低贸易成本对贸易小国影响程度更大。The traditional gravity models are basically based on the CES utility assumption, which cannot measure the differential impact on the trade flows between different trade partners after lowering the trade cost. This paper is on the basis of translog gravity , which Novy （2012） provides for overcoming the weak point, to measure the bilateral trade cost elasticity between the BRICS countries from 2000 to 2010. The result shows that the BRICS countries＇ trade costs elasticity varies within wide range between [245, 0.48] . Russia＇s average trade cost elasticity is on the top, followed by South Africa and China at the lowest. The ratio of differential value of South Africa to Brazil and China is at the highest level, which demonstrates that the impact of lowering trade cost on the small countries is greater than that on the big countries.

关 键 词：金砖国家 超越对数 引力模型 贸易成本弹性 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]