新产品扩散随机阈值模型的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of Stochastic Threshold Model on New Product Diffusion

作　　者：何铮[1] 张晓军[2] 吴易明[3] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054 [2]电子科技大学数学科学学院,成都610054 [3]广东外语外贸大学国际商务英语学院,广州510420

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2013年第1期39-45,52,共8页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(12BGL123);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA630056)

摘　　要：新产品扩散模型主要分为宏观总体速度模型和微观个体决策模型,相对于主流宏观Bass模型族大量的实证研究,微观决策模型的实证研究十分稀少。通过选择四川眉山大灵通产品扩散对随机阈值模型进行了实证研究,研究表明:基于社会关系网和传媒网共同作用的随机阈值模型对新产品扩散可以提供一个比较理想的仿真模拟,相对于Bass模型能够更加细致深入地描述扩散演进过程,说明该模型具有较好的现实价值,而且在一定程度上反映了新产品扩散的内在机理。针对随机阈值模型特点,运用访谈和问卷进行了网络关键参数的调研,再通过模型仿真与实际数据的对比分析模型解释力的实证方法,对其他微观个体决策模型的实证研究也提供了很好的参考价值。There are two kinds of new product diffusion models, macro cumulative model and individual decision model. Compared to a large number of empirical studies on Bass models, there are very fewempirical studies on individual decision model. In this paper, taking Dalingtong diffusion in Meishan, Sichuan province as a sample, we attempt to empirically validate stochastic threshold model. Empiricalresults indicate that stochastic threshold model, which depends on social network and mass media network, can provide much more accurate description to real new product diffusion than that of Bass modelby reflecting the product diffusion mechanism to some degree. In addition, the empirical method used in this paper is valuable to other individual decision models, in which traditional interview and questionnaireare employed to identify the key parameters and simulation results and real data are compared to explain the effectiveness of proposed stochastic threshold model.

关 键 词：随机阈值模型 新产品扩散 实证研究 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]