不确定性因素下的生物柴油项目决策分析  

DECISION-MAKING ANALYSIS OF A BIODIESEL PROJECT BASED ON UNCERTAIN FACTORS

作　　者：马敦超[1] 陈定江[1] 雪晶[1] 朱兵[1] 胡山鹰[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学化学工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2013年第2期324-330,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

摘　　要：建立小桐子生物柴油项目的不确定性决策模型,并使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算如何选择租地面积以实现最优的项目净现值。结果表明:世界石油价格和小桐子单产对项目净现值有明显影响,前者影响更为显著。随后情景分析研究小桐子果实含油率、国家税收政策和财政补贴3个因素对项目净现值的影响,发现提高小桐子果实含油率的技术和国家财政补贴可显著改善项目净现值。A decision-making model for biodiesel project from Jatropha oil was constructed in the paper, the deci- sion purpose was to choose rented land area for the optimal project net present value （NPV） of the project by Monte Carlo simulation method. The results showed that world crude oil prices had a more significant influence on NPV of project than biodiesel yield per unit area did. The following scenario analysis investigated the effects of seed oil- bearing rate, tax rate and financial subsidy on NPV of the project, and seed oil-bearing rate and financial subsidy could gratlv improve NPV of the proiect.

关 键 词：小桐子生物柴油 不确定性决策模型 蒙特卡罗模拟 项目净现值 

分 类 号：TK6[动力工程及工程热物理—生物能]