高能炸药分步压装工艺过程风险的模糊综合评价  

Overall fuzzy risk assessment of the step press and loading of HE charges

作　　者：黄文斌[1] 王淑萍[1] 王亲会[1] 金大勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国兵器工业第204研究所,西安710065

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2013年第1期258-262,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：针对高能炸药分步压装工艺过程中导致事故发生的因素具有的多样性、复杂性和不确定性,以及缺乏用于风险分析的统计数据等特点,综合分析了各种事故影响因素,建立了分步压装工艺过程风险评价的指标体系。采用层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,运用模糊数学方法对分步压装工艺过程进行风险评价。对某单位分步压装工艺过程的风险评价结果表明,该单位的风险是"大"等级,而且除了安全管理因素以外,其他各方面影响因素的风险隶属度都是"大"或者"较大"等级。各方面风险因素中权值较大和风险隶属度较高的因素可以作为安全管理的重点,相关单位可以此制定预防措施,降低风险。The present paper is inclined to introduce our study of the method of overall fuzzy risk assessment of the step press and loading of high-energy explosive charges. It is known that although great progress has been made on the step-press-loading charges of HE-ex- plosives and propellants, there still remains an urgent need to do fur- ther research on how to reduce the risk of such explosion probability in view of the factors that may account for such dangerous accidents. The troubles here involved mainly come from the complexity, uncer- tainty and no available statistic data that can be proved to be respon- sible for the risk. It is coming from this need that we have first of all made a detailed analysis of such influential factors and classified them into five categories, such as safety administration, human manipula- tion skills, the devices used and the likely involved parameters, the properties and the performance of the raw materials used as well as the environmental conditions in this paper. And based on the above factors analysis, we have established a risk index system, in which we have set up a risk assessment model of step-press-loading warhead charge process with the above-mentioned five factors as the first level of the index system and the model. In doing so, we have adopted theanalytic hierarchy process （AHP）to work out all the factors＇ weight and fuzzy order of the membership degree of the hazards. Then the overaU evaluation method was used to assess the risk degrees based on the AHP calculation. The result of our investigation shows that the overall evaluation method is rational and feasible for the risk assess- ment. And, finally, we have adopted this method to the risk assess- ment of a typical step-press-loading charges workshop and gained the first degree assessment result, which implies a ＂great＂ potential risk in the workshop. In addition to the safety administration problem, the other four factors of fuzzy membership are also ＂great＂ or ＂serious＂. The key points that accoun

关 键 词：安全工程 战斗部装药 分步压装 风险评价 模糊综合评价方法 

分 类 号：TQ560.8[化学工程—炸药化工]