安倍再度执政后的中日关系展望  

Outlook of Sino-Japan Relations after Abe's Reelection as the Prime Minister of Japan

作　　者：刘江永[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学当代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2013年第2期3-14,116-127,共24页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：2009年度教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"中国国际战略环境预测与国家应对战略研究"(09JZD0040-2)~~

摘　　要：2012年12月安倍晋三再度执政后,手中握有改善中日关系的机会,但在日本政治右倾化抬头背景下,其对华政策仍可能受到日本右翼和鹰派的影响。安倍内阁企图通过加强日美同盟,在中国周边开展所谓"价值观外交",构建针对中国的战略格局,在钓鱼岛问题上迫使中方让步。安倍最大政治目标是修改日本宪法,为日本对外使用军事力量铺路。近期在对中国采取强硬立场的同时,也会谋求缓解紧张关系,防止局势失控。若2013年7月自民党在参议院选举中获胜,很可能推动修改日本宪法。中日关系将进入新的历史阶段,前景不容乐观。2013年是《中日和平友好条约》缔结35周年。中日双方信守条约,妥善处理钓鱼岛争议,对未来的中日关系和东亚和平稳定是至关重要的。Shinzo Abe, the newly reelected Japanese Prime Minister in December 2012, is holding the opportunity for improving Sino-Japan bilateral relations. However, under the background of right-wing tilt in Japanese politics, Abe＇s policy toward China will inevitably tilt to the fight and emphasize hawkish claims. By strengthening Japan-US military alliance and taking ＂value-oriented diplomacy＂ against countries surrounding China, Abe Cabinet tries to construct a strategic pattern favorable to Japan and enforce China make concessions on Diaoyu Dao dispute. Abe＇s ultimate political goal is revising the Pacifist Constitution so as to pave the way for Japan to legitimately use military forces. In short term, Abe will take a tough stance on China, while moderate actions will also be considered in order to keep the situation controllable. Should Liberal Democratic Party won the Upper House election in the coming July, the revision of Japanese Pacifist Constitution might be initiated. In that case, Sino-Japan relations would come into a new historical phase, though not optimistic. The year of 2013 is the 35th anniversary of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between China and Japan. For a healthy Sino-Japan relationship and the peace and stability of Northeast Asia, it is of great significance for both sides to respect the treaty and handle the dispute of Diaoyu Dao properly.

关 键 词：安倍晋三 中日关系 钓鱼岛 日本政治 日本外交 政治右倾化 

分 类 号：D831.30[政治法律—政治学]