基于CREAM的电网人为可靠性定量分析方法  

A quantitative method for human reliability in power system based on CREAM

作　　者：陆海波[1] 王媚[2] 郭创新[1] 俞斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]上海市电力公司检修公司,上海200031

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2013年第5期37-42,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177143);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2011AA05A120);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20090101110058)~~

摘　　要：目前电网可靠性的相关研究主要集中在输变电设备或是电网供电可靠性,人为操作可靠性的研究尚不多见。首先叙述了电网人为操作可靠性概念及认知可靠性和失误分析模型(CREAM)基本法,然后借鉴了核工业领域的人为可靠性分析模型,结合电力操作特点和已有的安全相关的规章制度,给出9类通用效能条件的评估细则,提出一种基于CREAM的电网人为操作可靠性定量分析方法。通过不同环境条件下某变电站倒闸操作的案例分析,验证了模型的正确性。Nowadays, the reliability analysis of the power system mainly concentrates on the power transmission and transfbrmation equipment or power delivery, but the analysis of human reliability is few. First of all, the concept of human operation reliability of power system and the basic cognitive reliability and error analysis method （CREAM） are described. In this paper, the human reliability analysis model used in nuclear industry is taken as a reference. According to power system operation characteristics and existing security related rules and regulations, the detailed rules of nine types of common performance conditions （CPC） are given. And a quantitative approach for power system operation reliability based on （CREAM） is proposed. Case analysis of switching operation in some substation under different conditions verifies the accuracy of the proposed model.

关 键 词：人为可靠性 认知可靠性和失误分析模型 模糊集合 层次分析法 倒闸操作 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]