MLRM法预估含风电场系统静态电压稳定裕度  

MLRM-based estimation of static voltage stability margin of power systems with wind farms

作　　者：徐玉琴[1] 刘文霞[1] 潘雄[2] 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北保定071003 [2]云南电网公司,云南昆明650217

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2013年第5期48-53,共6页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：对含风电场的复杂电网,计及负荷及风电场出力的随机性,快速预测电网稳定性有利于电力系统安全运行,并为电网调度提供参考。多元线性回归法(MLRM)可在离线计算的基础上,利用离线计算结果快速、在线预估电网的静态电压稳定性。具体过程是:基于连续潮流,采用蒙特卡罗仿真法离线计算系统静态电压稳定裕度(SVSM)真值,作为SVSM预估样本空间;采用MLRM建模,将影响系统电压的发电机节点无功备用作为解释变量,蒙特卡罗法所得SVSM为被解释变量,建立多元线性回归方程,求得回归系数;在线预估系统SVSM。对接入风场的改进IEEE-14及IEEE-118算例进行仿真计算,结果说明了MLRM方法用于在线预估电网静态电压稳定的有效性。For the complex power grid with wind farms, forecasting the stability of power grid fast while considering the randomness of load and wind farms will benefit the safe operation of power systems as well as provide reference for grid scheduling. The online static voltage stability of power grid is estimated by multi-linear regression models （MLRM） based on off-line computation results. This is the specific process： using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate true values of system＇s static voltage stability margin （SVSM） based on continuous power flow, and these true values will compose estimating sample space; when using MLRM method, the reactive power reserves of generator buses which influences voltage amplitude will become explaining variables and the voltage stability margin will become explained variables, then multivariate linear regression equation is established to compute the regression coefficients; forecasting the online SVSM finally. The test cases on improved IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of forecasting static voltage stability margin by MLRM method.

关 键 词：连续潮流 多元线性回归模型 风电 蒙特卡罗仿真 静态电压稳定裕度 N-1静态安全分析 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]