利用海气耦合模式预测的大尺度环流进行热带气旋年频数的预测试验  

CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY USINGTHE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A CGCM

作　　者：贾小龙[1] 陈丽娟[1] LUO Jing-jia 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心/中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [2]Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Program,Research Institute for Global Change,Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第1期37-46,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200906015);科技部科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B04;2009BAC51B05);联合重点基金(U0833602)共同资助

摘　　要：基于对热带气旋生成频数和大尺度环流相关关系的分析,利用SINTEX-F海气耦合模式预测的大尺度大气环流信息,通过提取模式预测较好与热带气旋生成密切相关的有用信息,建立了一个基于动力模式预测结果的南海和西太平洋热带气旋年频数预测模型,并对1982—2010年的热带气旋生成频数进行预测试验与检验。SINTEX-F海气耦合模式能够较好预测部分与热带气旋生成密切相关的大尺度环流特征,其中包括热带气旋活动区域的海平面气压、对流层风垂直切变、850 hPa热带辐合带和850 hPa 90°E附近的越赤道气流。利用这些大尺度环流建立的预测因子与热带气旋生成频数有很好的相关关系,利用这些预测因子建立的多元回归预测模型对热带气旋频数的拟合率为0.8(相关系数,超过99.9%的信度检验)。预测模型的交叉检验结果表明模型整体预测效果较好。交叉检验预测结果与实况热带气旋频数的相关为0.71(超过了99.9%的信度检验),距平同号率为82.8%。但模型对热带气旋异常年的预测误差较大。Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone frequency and large scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the tropical cyclone frequency including sea level pressure （SLP）, wind vertical shear, tropical convergence belt and cross-equatorial air flow. Predictors derived from these large scale circulations have good relationships with the tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression （MLR） model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted tropical cyclone frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years （1994 and 1998, for example）.

关 键 词：CGCM 大尺度环流 热带气旋 气候预测 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]